America just came through an extraordinary political roller coaster. But is the ride over?
In the last two months, we’ve seen a series of historic, unprecedented, landscape-shifting events that have shaken politics. All culminating in Kamala Harris’s ascension to the top of the Democratic ticket. This, paired with a dramatic shift in media narratives, has left the U.S. presidential race in a virtual tie nationally when, just weeks ago, the bottom was falling out for Joe Biden and Democrats.
As the 2024 election nears, the stakes have never been higher, and we should expect a few more twists and turns.
American Pulse Research & Polling keeps up with what’s happening in our country. Since Donald Trump’s Manhattan conviction and especially the June presidential debate, significant events have been happening so fast that timely, accurate polling is challenging. Only now are we starting to get enough distance to understand how the American public is processing everything that has happened.
Plus, there is still much more to come.
So, with Harris’s first week at the top under her belt, American Pulse decided to get America’s pulse on how this topsy-turvy political season affects voters’ views of politics and what it means going forward.
Despite these seismic events, our new survey shows that the fundamental issues at the heart of this election remain unchanged. Trust and competency are still on the ballot. Voters question who they can trust to handle the pressing “kitchen table” issues like inflation and immigration. The latest polling data reveal a nation deeply divided, with Trump and Harris locked in a statistical dead heat nationally.
The survey of 1,035 likely voters shows Trump leading Harris by a mere 0.5 percent in a six-way race when “leaners” are included. Excluding them, Harris nudges ahead by the same margin. These razor-thin differences underscore the volatility of our political moment.
However, while this is a real improvement for Democrats considering where they were just weeks ago, Biden was up 7.8 percent in 2020. Hillary Clinton was up 1.1 percent in 2016 on July 31 of those years in the RealClearPolitics Average.
More important, it is a different story in the seven crucial swing states that will decide the election. When we broke out the average in those states, Trump still has a decent edge, leading Harris by 4.3 percent.
The race is further complicated by voters’ perceptions of the current administration and what may already be the election’s defining issue. A staggering 61 percent of voters — by a 30-point margin — think the Biden administration and its allies concealed Biden’s cognitive decline, with 47 percent “strongly” believing this. This cover-up concern is not confined to partisan lines — 62 percent of independents and even a third of Democrats agree.
As the election approaches, polling shows three primary issues dominating voter concerns: inflation, immigration and incompetence. In terms of inflation and immigration, Trump holds a decisive lead. According to the poll, 51 percent of voters think Trump would better handle inflation and the economy, and 54 percent trust him more on immigration and border security.
This matters because, despite Democrats effectively hitting “reset” on the race, the poll indicates nearly half of voters view Harris as an extension of Biden’s government, with 48.1 percent thinking she would mirror Biden’s approach. This poses a challenge for Harris, as 58 percent say the country is going in the wrong direction, 51 percent say the world is “less safe,” and only 35 percent of respondents approve of the administration’s handling of immigration.
The one policy silver-lining for Democrats is that Harris leads on “handling the issue of abortion,” an issue she is expected to emphasize heavily.
In this moment of uncertainty, the electorate faces a critical choice. With concerns about trust, competency and media influence at the forefront, the coming months will be decisive in shaping the nation’s direction.
The 2024 election is shaping up to be one of the most consequential in recent history. As the roller coaster of political events unfolds, voters must navigate the high-stakes twists, turns, ups and downs. While the last two months have been a wild ride, it’s not over, so buckle up and hold on tight.
Dustin Olson is the managing partner of American Pulse Research & Polling.
