County public health data reported 464 new coronavirus cases and six new deaths Wednesday.
The county’s case trends are showing signs of leveling off after a two-week rise, it’s largest rise in months. The seven-day daily average increasing from 188 on Sept. 26 to 459 Monday. That average ticked down to 448 Tuesday and ticked up to 453 on Wednesday. The average has dropped by a net of four cases in the past four days, a stark improvement from the prior four days, when it rose by 66 cases.
The county’s virus death numbers reached a seven-day daily average of four Wednesday, the lowest it’s been in months. That figure is down from an average of 18 deaths a day on Sept. 23. New virus cases and virus deaths often trend in different directions because deaths are a lagging indicator. Deaths do not reflect the new case numbers recorded on the same day but usually better reflect the new case numbers from two or three weeks ago.
COVD-19 cases peaked in the county in late June and early July, according to the Maricopa County Department of Public Health, reaching 3,825 cases in a day on June 29. While today’s numbers still pale in comparison to that surge, the county is experiencing its largest increase in cases since the surge. The county’s seven-day daily average of new cases was 195 on Friday, Sept. 11 and increased to 388 by Wednesday, Oct. 7, the most recent day of complete data. That trend is likely only to worsen when more days of data become complete as preliminary case numbers reported in recent days have averaged higher than 388 cases a day.
The county’s surge in coronavirus-related deaths has lagged a couple weeks after the surge in cases, as is typical with COVID-19 reporting. The county’s worst single-day death total was 69 on July 16. Daily death totals have recently declined to the level they were at before the county’s surge. In the most recent day of complete data, Sunday, Sept. 27, the seven-day daily average was eight deaths a day. The seven-day death average has remained below 10 for 21 days, the first time since early June.