By Howard Fischer
Mail | X: @azcapmedia

PHOENIX — Sick of those political ads on TV and radio?

You ain’t seen nothing yet.

A new report by AdImpact finds that politicians and the political action committees that support them have reserved almost $1.8 billion worth of commercial time between Labor Day and Election Day.

And close to $150 million of that is here in Arizona.

Most of that money — $65 million — is being devoted to the hotly contested race for U.S. Senate, with about three-fourths of that on behalf of Democrat Ruben Gallego. In fact, AdImpact reports Gallego himself set aside $18.3 million from his own campaign warchest — the highest amount of any individual candidate in any Senate race in the nation.

The balance will come not just in whatever money Republican Kari Lake can raise — she is far behind Gallego — but what outside interests spend here on both sides in an effort to influence the outcome.

That race has become one of the most highly watched as it could determine who gets control of the Senate. And it has become particularly important to Democrats to at least maintain their slim majority, what with the House run by the GOP and the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trumo being a potential toss-up in electoral votes.

Overall, AdImpact predicts more than $603 million will be spent on the 34 Senate races in 2024, And almost $348 million of that is on behalf of Democrats.

That, the organization says, should come as no surprise.
“Democrats are facing an uphill climb for control of the Senate, running against a historically challenging map,” its new report states. And Republicans, who control 49 of the 100 seats, are poised to pick up the seat being vacated in West Virginia by Joe Manchin, “meaning they are on the precipice of a majority.”

That means winning just a single other seat currently held by a Democrat — or, in the case of Arizona, by Kyrsten Sinema who re-registered from Democrat to independent — would give them control.

In another development, NBC News reported the political action committee affiliated with the Congressional Hispanic Caucus is going to spend about $1.1 million in Arizona in a bid to get Gallego elected. That will be nearly $690,000 in Spanish broadcast spots, $250,000 on digital advertising and $158,000 on statewide Spanish radio.

Arizona also is crucial in the presidential race. The most recent Cook Political Report figures 226 electoral votes are Democratic or leaning that way, with 219 for the GOP. That leaves 93 votes at play, with 270 needed to win.

That list of toss-up states includes Arizona and its 11 electoral votes.
AdImpact says there’s nearly $40 million already reserved for ads in Arizona in the presidential race between now and Election Day.

The lion’s share of that — $34.9 million — is earmarked to elect Kamala Harris, with just $9.9 million in reservations on behalf of Donald Trump.
That, however, is less than the $86 million the company says was spent four years ago here in the same Labor Day to Election Day period.
Then, too, Democrats outspent Republicans: $51 million to $35 million. And that was just enough to have Joe Biden defeat Trump by 10,456 votes statewide.

Still, the nearly $40 million already reserved in Arizona for presidential ads this year is dwarfed by $136 million in Pennsylvania with its 19 electoral votes. Trump himself, in a recent pitch in Philadelphia, said, “If we win Pennsylvania, we win the presidency.”

That nearly $150 million estimate in total advertising spending in Arizona includes ballot measures, though the report does not break out who has set aside funding.

Much of that is likely to be spent on Proposition 139, which would for the first time put a right to abortion in the Arizona Constitution. Even after paying for things like signature gathering, the most recent report of Arizona for Abortion Access, covering the period through the middle of July, listed more than $9.7 million cash on hand.

By contrast, It Goes Too Far, the committee organized in opposition, had less than $400,000 cash available at the same time.