PHOENIX — A new survey suggests that efforts to enact a Texas-style abortion law in Arizona would not be greeted warmly.
The online poll conducted earlier this month found that only 39% of Arizonans approve of the Texas "heartbeat act.'' That law makes it illegal to perform an abortion after a fetal heartbeat can be detected, a point that occurs as early as six weeks, which may be before some women realize they are pregnant.
That law also empowers any individual to file suit against anyone who aids in the abortion, meaning not just the doctor but potentially anyone else involved from the office staff and counselors to the driver of the vehicle who takes her to the clinic. And anyone found guilty faces a $10,000 civil penalty.
Cathi Herrod, president of the anti-abortion Center for Arizona Policy, told Capitol Media Services earlier this month that a decision by the U.S. Supreme Court to allow the law to take effect appears to provide a "road map'' for enacting abortion restrictions in this state that, until now, have been struck down by federal courts.
The key to that decision is that it is not the state interfering with the right of a woman to choose but instead civil litigants. And the justices, in a 5-4 split, said they were not ready and briefed to look at that issue.
But pollster Mike Noble of OH Predictive Insights said that he found just 23 percent of the 882 registered people questioned strongly agree with the Texas law, with another 16 percent saying they are somewhat in agreement.
Conversely, 51 percent disapproved, including 37 percent who are in strong disapproval.
Not surprisingly, the Texas law was backed in whole or partially by 76 percent of those who described themselves as “pro-life,” with just 6 percent opposed.
That compares with just 17 percent backing of the law by those who call themselves “pro-choice,” with 73 percent who disapprove.
Exactly where to draw the line on the issue of abortion, however, is a little more nuanced.
Only 13 percent of those asked say they believe abortion should be illegal in all circumstances, with 40 percent on the opposite side.
But the plurality of Arizona voters — 47 percent — found themselves somewhere in the middle, saying that they believe the practice should be legal “under certain circumstances.”
As it turns out, even 63 percent of those who describe themselves as “pro-life” also say they believe that the procedure should be restricted but not banned outright. Only 28 percent of the pro-life people who were in the survey took the stance that all abortions should be outlawed.
Noble found a link between religion and beliefs.
For example, among those who want abortion outlawed he found more than a quarter of people who said they attend religious services once a week.
The middle ground -- the abortion under certain circumstances -- includes 59 percent of those who attend services weekly.
And in the group that wants abortion permitted in all circumstances includes 72% of atheists and 55 percent who say they never attend religious services.
The survey comes as a federal judge is weighing whether to allow the state's latest attempt to restrict abortion to take effect as scheduled on Wednesday.
That law, passed by the barest margin — and with only Republican support — seeks to make it a crime for a medical practitioner to perform an abortion knowing that the sole reason the woman wants to terminate the pregnancy is because the fetus has a genetic defect.
That would apply even if a fetus is not yet viable, which has until now been the touchstone of what federal courts generally have said is the dividing line between what a state can ban and what it can only regulate.
Violators could be sent to state prison for up to a year.
In arguments last week, Assistant Attorney General Michael Catlett told U.S. District Court Judge Douglas Rayes that the law passes constitutional muster because it is not an outright ban.
He acknowledged that a doctor, told of a woman's desire to terminate a fetus with a genetic defect, would be prohibited, under penalty of law, from performing the procedure. But Catlett argued that women still could get an abortion by going to another doctor and either not providing that information — or lying about it entirely.
Rayes could rule as early as this week.
Noble said the survey results suggests a disconnect between the Republican lawmakers who continue to approve abortion restrictions and the state's voters. He said they appear to be operating on the basis that Arizona is as conservative on the issue as it once was.
“They should open their minds a little bit,” Noble said. “It’s clearly not as hard-Right state as they believe.”
The online opt-in survey, balanced to reflect the state's demographics, has a margin of error of 3.3 percent.
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