Norton: The repeating consequences of Scottsdale's new ‘rural land use’ proposal

The “don’t call us no-growthers” contingent of our City Council proposes to impose a multi-billion-dollar penalty on the City of Scottsdale as they pursue their “no-growth” initiative, which they steadfastly insist is “not no-growth.”

This self-imposed injury will repeat in perpetuity.

They claim that a majority of the 25,000 some odd people who live in far north Scottsdale support their rural land use amendment to the general plan.

They also claim that turning the general plan into a massive zoning ordinance is lawful. Whether they are right about those issues or not, why should we all be forced to spend billions to appease that small fraction of Scottsdale?

At stake is over 4,000 acres of privately owned land and another 2,500-plus of state trust lands that will be down zoned to allow nothing more than multi-acre, single family residence parcels.

To make matters worse, any privately owned land “abutting” the Preserve would suffer newly imposed “zoning actions, dedicated easements, or other entitlements that limit use for conservative/preservation purposes.”

While the city has not received any formal complaint from private landowners, Kathy Littlefield, one of the strongest proponents of the rural land use downzoning, received formal notice from the largest landowner in Scottsdale other than the city of Scottsdale. The state of Arizona gave formal notice of its objection to a similar proposal in 2016. Why would Littlefield try this again knowing that the action will launch litigation with a powerful opponent that will not flinch over legal fees?

Imagine the shock to someone who owns land across from the Preserve who finds out the city just dropped massive restrictions on what they can do with that land. Imposing Preserve-like restrictions on land near the Preserve is a clear act of defacto condemnation.

Every abutting property owner will soon become a plaintiff in what should be called “Angry Next-Door Neighbors To the Preserve vs. City of Scottsdale.” Those lawsuits will not go well for the city.

If successful, the socio-economic consequences are enormous. The last opportunities for family-friendly, master-planned communities in Scottsdale will be erased forever. There will never be a school north of Pinnacle Peak Road. There will never be a grocery store or gas station for miles. The value of that 10 acre parcel that grandma and grandpa planned to develop to provide retirement and inheritance funds just got slashed by a third — or more.

Equally important — to the entire state, not just Scottsdale — we will rob schools of critical budget funds. The sale of state trust lands provides a major portion of school funding. The value of every inch of the state-owned land adjacent to or north of Jomax Road will fall dramatically.

The better part of $1 billion of school funds would disappear. It is at least questionable whether any developer would consider buying that land so long as this City Council majority continues to propose draconian restrictions on use. And perhaps that’s our City Council’s objective.

If no one bids on the land other than the city, it can be added to the Preserve — the ultimate no-growth move. Regardless, students in our already under-funded schools will be the financial victims of this misguided action by our City Council.

What is this going to cost our city?

•The potential for a $2-plus billion judgment for diminution in value due to a down-zoning of land, a provision of Prop 207 protecting property owners’ rights. Most land use attorneys say the city will lose that fight. Some in the city attorney’s office quietly agree. Who is going to pay for that massive loss? Don’t expect the residents of 85262 and 85266 to reach for their wallets.

•A permanent reduction in the property taxes that would have been generated by development of something with a higher and better use than 3 acre mini-ranches. Instead of 10 or more $1 million homes, we will tax one residence that is a small fraction of what would have been built. A permanent eight digit annual loss in property tax receipts will result.

•A permanent loss of sales tax potential. Retail development will end up on the West side of Scottsdale Road.

•There will never be a school north of Pinnacle Peak. Young families will move someplace else. The region will continue its evolution into Sun City East but with bigger houses on bigger lots. Our City Council knows that will happen. Is that their real intention?

•The cost of every city service — sewer, water, police and fire — will multiply in proportion to the residents who are served. Nine people in Scottsdale will pay for the one person living in the protected area. Why should 9 out of 10 pay for nothing?

•Windgate Ranch, where one of our City Council members lives, could never be built there.

•Grayhawk, where another City Council member lives, could never be built there.

•The communities that are already built in the north could also never again be built there. No Troon or Troon North. No Desert Highlands, Estancia, Legend Trail, Mirabel, Boulders or Terravita. Not even another Desert Mountain.

When asked, it is hard to find many in this city who do not love those resort style communities. In fact our recently conducted city survey showed enormous love for those regions. Why do we ignore our own city survey? Why would we decide now to forever ban any more from being built?

•The long talked about opportunity for a fabulous eco-resort on the east side of Pima Road north of Troon would also go up in smoke.

We are quickly learning the consequences of being governed by emotions instead of logic and financial sense. The “don’t-call-us-no-growth” City Council members don’t want to know the truth about the massive cost of their contemplated actions. They won’t call for a financial impact assessment and our city staff will be reluctant to shove it in their faces.

That task will be left to a core group of volunteers participating in an Athena Foundation Scottsdale deep dive into the city budget and tax base. By April we will have reasonable estimates of the impact on all taxpayers and residents. It won’t be pretty. It will not be easy. But it’s got to be done.

Editor’s Note: Mike Norton is a longtime Scottsdale resident and executive director of Athena Foundation Scottsdale.